Colorado State University, a top hurricane forecaster, has issued an updated 2020 hurricane forecast based on the latest data.
The new forecast now calls for more storms than the original forecast issued in April. Based on information gathered through June 2020 the new forecast suggests that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will have above average activity in comparison to the 1981-2010 seasons average.
This year’s forecast suggests there will be
- Nine hurricanes (the average full season is 6.4).
- 20 named storms – including five we’ve already seen (the average is 12.1).
- Four major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes (the average is 2.7).
Factors that contributed to this forecast are detailed in this 10 Tampa Bay news report. They include a tropical Atlantic that is warmer than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is very warm. Most of the eastern Atlantic is also warmer than what is typical, and warm temps are generally associated with more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. While these forecasts do not predict where a hurricane is likely to strike, the report does state that:
The probability for landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.
It is also noted, however, that we must remember that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to cause major destruction and loss of life, and as Floridians, we must assume that the risk is great and prepare the same every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. Be prepared and stay safe, Florida!